It’s amazing that the cookware company Teflon haven’t tried to sign up Donald Trump for an advertising campaign – after all, nothing seems to stick to the US President.

He has made some of the most incredible gaffes you are ever likely to see from a politician of such power, from the infamous ‘covfefe’ mystery, to inadvertently recommending to his electorate that they inject themselves with bleach.

With the US Presidential election upcoming in November, you might think that Trump’s reign of power in the White House was set to come to an end. And yet, that's not exactly the outcome that is being predicted by many.

It’s true that CNN reported that the President’s approval rating slumped to 44% in April, which comes following his questionable handling of matters in the first quarter of 2020. That was backed up by the data firm FiveThirtyEight’s own approval ranking system, and so, based on that evidence alone, you would think that Joe Biden is a shoo-in to win the election.

However, the bookmakers – so often the sharpest arbiters in these matters – don’t think the race will be as one-sided as you may otherwise think. Indeed, in the odds on the next US President many of the bookies have Trump down as their favourite to win – his general price of 10/11 gives him an implied probability of 52.4% of retaining his position.

Such positivity – in the wake of mounting evidence to the contrary – comes from the fact that the President seems to retain his support in his key constituencies. According to the betting odds, he is 5/6 to win the vote in Florida, 8/13 in Ohio, 1/2 in Texas, 1/25 in South Carolina, and a whopping 1/200 in West Virginia. In short, the Republican Party’s supporters are yet to jettison them.

There are six months or so until the polls will open to elect the next US President, and plenty of time for Donald Trump to make plenty of his trademark gaffes and mistakes in that time.

But will anything he says or does make any great deal of difference?

Trump Victory Remains a Betting Landmark

The controversial and divisive 2016 election battle between Trump and Hilary Clinton was unlike anything US politics had seen before.  

Claims of data hacking, illicit emails, and even alleged Russian blackmail provided the backdrop for a war of words between two politicians who couldn’t be any more different in their ideologies and outlook on life.

You were either red or blue – there was no middle ground, and such acrimony led to the 2016 US Presidential election being the most bet upon political event in history, with the many companies reporting that it was also likely to be the single-most wagered upon betting market of any kind they have ever seen. More than $150 million was bet with one top brand alone.

Some punters had spotted the value in the market, and sensed that it was far from a foregone conclusion that Clinton and the Democrats would win – even if, at one point, Trump was available at odds as long as 3/1, which is an implied probability of just 25% to win.

One thing we have learned with Trump is that he seems to be capable of shaking off even the greatest of controversies, and it would be foolish to write him off in making history in 2020 once again.

tagged in